Given that in recent years I’ve actively followed professional road cycling, and currently have some extra time on my hands, I’ve decided to write an announcement for this year’s race, and even try my hand at making predictions. 🙂 I hope some of you will follow the race, so that later we can all laugh together at how I completely missed the whole game. 😀
*I’ve translated my original text from Croatian to English with help of chatGPT.
About the race:
I can say that this edition of the race is primarily tailored to sprinters. The organizer has, in fact, designated all stages except the fourth as stages with possible group sprints. Except for the mentioned fourth and fifth stages with long climbs, either they are absent or not challenging enough or not close enough to the finish line to eliminate all sprinters from contention. Although this doesn’t mean that the riders won’t cover quite a few meters in elevation. The fourth stage will be the most interesting and probably the winner of that stage will be the overall winner of the race.
The route this year will be highly picturesque, as we are mostly along the coast or in close proximity to it, and we will also be visiting the islands of Pag and Krk. This year, there is no northern or eastern Croatia on the route. The northernmost point is in Sveti Ivan Zelina, and the easternmost point is about twenty kilometers away in Vrbovec. Although I’m somewhat disappointed by this fact, I understand why it’s the case. The race is significantly supported by the Croatian Tourist Board, and when they are already paying for the broadcast on Eurosport, of course, they would prefer to showcase Primošten instead of, for example, my city in the northern part of the country, because the average European is more likely to come to the coast than here in the continental part.
However, there is a potential pitfall here. Namely, if unfavorable weather conditions such as rain, strong winds, or southern gusts occur during the race, it’s quite possible that either there won’t be any racing or it will be limited because the conditions would be too dangerous for racing. This has already happened to us on at least one stage in the past. Of course, I hope we’ll have beautiful autumn weather, and that the riders will enjoy the sunshine and warmth of our coast, while we’ll savor the magnificent landscapes of Croatia.
*update, September 25th. The weather forecast looks favorable, so I believe we won’t have any issues with rain or wind!
About the race quality:
So, CroRace is in the third tier of the world cup. Although it may sound bad, it really isn’t. Many countries, including those in Europe, have exactly this level, and often, excellent teams with great riders participate in them. It’s the same here; we will have the opportunity to watch strong teams with several well-known names. I would like to highlight all five teams from the top tier, the “UCI World Teams” level:
- Bahrain – Victorious from Bahrain (with a strong Croatian and Slovenian presence)
- Ineos Grenadiers – Great Britain
- Lidl-Trek – USA
- Team DSM-firmenich – Netherlands
- Team Jayco Alula – Australia
Then, from the second tier, “UCI Pro Teams”:
- Eolo–Kometa – Italy
- Uno-X Pro Cycling Team – Norway
- Two Spanish teams: Caja Rural–Seguros RGA and Equipo Kern Pharma
- And Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team from Switzerland
From the third tier or “Continental teams” level, I would like to mention Adria Mobil and Ljubljana Gusto Santic from Slovenia.
In total, there are 18 teams, each with 7 riders, which means that 126 riders will start the race.
In my opinion, Ineos Grenadiers definitely have the strongest team, followed by Bahrain Victorious. Lidl Trek and DSM also have several very good and well-known individuals, and UNO-X will likely have something to say in the sprint stages as well.
The riders:
From Ineos, we have Joshua Tarling, a nineteen-year-old who won the bronze medal at this year’s World Championships in the time trial, and just a few days ago, he became the European champion in the same discipline! Even though there’s no time trial in this race, this young man can ride. 🙂 We also have 21-year-old Magnus Sheffield, who has achieved some excellent results in tough races this year, and 25-year-old Ethan Hayter, who won races in Poland and Norway last year, and this spring, he clinched a stage in Romandie (Switzerland). This race is part of his return journey after a serious injury he suffered in June. Let’s not forget sprinter Elia Viviani, who, although no longer in the top league of sprinters, still has some tricks up his sleeve in races like CroRace. They’ll be supported by several experienced riders with numerous top races under their belts.
Bahrain Victorius brings us Slovenian Matej Mohorič, a winner of three stages in the TDF, a victor in one of the most prestigious Italian one-day races, Milan – San Remo, and a winner of last year’s CroRace. I must mention our own Fran Miholjević, who showcased his talent to the world last year by winning a stage at the Giro di Sicilia. This year, he regained his national time trial champion title.
Lidl Trek brings the US champion, Quinn Simmons, for whom this is the first race after a serious crash at this year’s TDF. I hope it’s the first step on his road to recovery, as he’s a rider who drew attention with his victory at the Tour de Wallonie. Interestingly, he was born in the same town as the current winner of the race in Spain, American Sepp Kuss. Both were born in Durango, Colorado.
Italian Alberto Dainese from Team DSM-firmenich comes directly from Spain, where he won a stage at the Vuelta a España. This year, he also secured a stage win at the Giro d’Italia and one in Norway at the Arctic Race of Norway.
*update, September 25th. At the last moment, British cyclist Oscar Onley joined the team, who won two stages of the CroRace last year and finished 3rd in the general classification. However, as he is returning from a collarbone injury he suffered at the Vuelta a month ago, it’s uncertain what kind of form he is in. Since his rehabilitation was relatively short, he might still be competitive in the climbing sections. Dainese, on the other hand, will not be participating in the race. Instead, the team has added Tobias Lund Andresen, who, during a race in Denmark last month, was only surpassed by the best sprinters in the world!
Uno X brings us Alexander Kristoff, who, although no longer in the top league of sprinters, boasts numerous victories in top races, and I believe he’ll be a strong contender in our race.
Out of local patriotism, I’d like to highlight Croatian road champion, Viktor Potočki, who rides for the Slovenian Ljubljana Gusto Santic team, and I believe he’ll want to make a mark, at least with some breakaways.
Other riders who could achieve good results:
Australian Damien Howson from Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team, who finished third overall in the recently concluded Tour of Britain (2.Pro) and fourth overall in the Vuelta a Burgos (2.Pro).*update, September 25th. The team has removed Howson from the roster at the last moment.- Czech Jakub Otruba from ATT Investments, who consistently finished around the 10th position in the general classification in recent races of the same level as the Cro Race.
- Orluis Aular, the Venezuelan champion, who rides for the Spanish Caja Rural – Seguros RGA team. He was among the top 10 in three sprint stages before withdrawing from this year’s Vuelta.
Riders from UCI World Teams and Proteams who could shine on some stages, based on their performances this year:
Climbers:
- Frank van den Broek, Development Team DSM-firmenich
- Jesús David Peña, Team Jayco AlUla
- Fernando Barceló, Caja Rural – Seguros RGA
- Fernando Tercero, EOLO-Kometa
- Roger Adrià, Equipo Kern Pharma
- Jonas Gregaard, Uno-X Pro Cycling Team
Sprinters:
- Tim Torn Teutenberg, Lidl – Trek
- Jon Aberasturi – Lidl Trek
- Iúri Leitão, Caja Rural – Seguros RGA
- Giovanni Lonardi, EOLO-Kometa
- Tilen Finkšt, Adria Mobil
- Mirco Maestri, EOLO-Kometa (he’s also quite strong climber)
Stages:
- Primošten – Sinj, Tuesday, 26.09., start at 12:25
181 km, with 2500 meters of climbing.
A beautiful route through central Dalmatia, starting from Primošten along the coast towards Šibenik, where the first intermediate sprint awaits, providing the first opportunity to earn points for the blue jersey. Afterward, we turn eastward through the hinterland, where two climbs of 2nd and 3rd category await, offering points for the green, climber’s jersey. Following that, we descend into Split, where there will be another intermediate sprint, and then we ascend to Klis, categorized as level 2, which means more points for the climbers. From there, it’s approximately 45 more kilometers to the finish line and another intermediate sprint for collecting points. Riders will make a loop around the city and enter from the northeast side. Just before the finish line, at around 700 meters, a roundabout awaits, followed by a slight right turn, and then a relatively long straight finish. The road has three lanes after the roundabout but soon narrows down to two lanes, so the sprint teams will have to be cautious to be among the first to exit the roundabout. The road continues to descend gently after the roundabout.
I predict that the breakaway will collect all the points before Sinj, never having more than a two-minute advantage at any point. The favorites are Elia Viviani, Alexander Kristoff, Orluis Aular, Tobias Lund Andresen and Iúri Leitão could be the fastest, with Andresen or Viviani having the best chances. The former due to recent results and the latter because of the team’s strength.
- Biograd na Moru – Novalja, Wednesday, 27.9., start at 14:15.
114.5 km, 1050 meters of climbing.
The shortest stage of this year’s race leads from Biograd na Moru along the coast to Zadar, where the first intermediate sprint will be. After that, it turns north through Ravni Kotari towards Posedarje, where the third-category climb to Jovići begins, and then continues towards Pag. There, at 86.5 kilometers, is the second intermediate sprint, and immediately after that, there is a second-category climb to Gradac. From there, we descend to Novalja, where a loop will be made, and after the first pass through the finish line and the collection of points for the blue jersey, we will get the second stage winner of this race.
In races of a higher level, stages like these usually brought explosive racing; however, I’m not sure if I dare to hope for that in this case. Two climbs are too weak to make a difference for these riders. The first climb stretches for almost ten kilometers and during that time gains barely 200 meters of elevation, while the one in Pag is relatively steep but quite short. Although another similar climb follows it, I don’t think it will make any difference. If a breakaway even manages to form, it might get a minute’s advantage, and after Pag, the peloton will regroup for a sprint. However, in Pag, the roads are relatively narrow, so caution is needed, and I hope the road will be dry! In Novalja, things are relatively straightforward; like on the first day, we have two passes through the finish line, but after the first pass, there is a roundabout, followed by a sharp right turn, and then a not too steep but potentially suitable climb for a breakaway attempt. This climb might last around 500 meters, but after that, there is an equal stretch of flat road, and then we descend gently towards the finish.
Having said that, I still believe that the peloton won’t allow it, so I expect a battle for victory among the four riders I mentioned for the first stage: Elia Viviani, Alexander Kristoff, Orluis Aular, Tobias Lund Andresen and Iúri Leitão. As DSM has shaken up the sprinter hierarchy by removing Dainese, then whoever wins the first stage could very well continue their success with a victory in Novalja.
The fact is that after the pandemic, the average speeds at which cyclists race have noticeably increased. Considering that this stage doesn’t feature many long climbs, even though it’s not entirely flat, it’s quite possible that the winner will cross the finish line after just two and a half hours of racing.
- Otočac – Opatija, Thursday, 28.9., start at 13:30
133.5km, 1700 meters of climbing.
Another relatively short stage but with an additional 700 meters of ascent. The stage begins in Lika region, in Otočac, and then descends from Vratnik, which is categorized as a Category 3 climb, to Senj. We then continue along the Adriatic Highway through Novi Vinodolski, where additional points for the blue jersey will be up for grabs. From there, we proceed with a Category 2 climb to Bribir, then head to Rijeka for another intermediate sprint, and from there to Opatija. Here, the excitement begins! The organizers have designed a circuit at the finish, but they’ve added a steep and short climb followed by an equally challenging descent towards the coast. There’s one more twist: right after the ultra-fast descent to the coast, there’s a sharp left turn, and from there, it’s only 300 meters to the finish!
The final circuit could be very interesting and exciting, but I’m keeping my fingers crossed for no rain because it would be very, very dangerous then! This is the first stage that isn’t for sprinters but rather for riders who excel in short and steep climbs like the one in Opatija, which rises 56 meters in just 410 meters, averaging a 13.6% gradient! This climb was used in the 2021 CroRace, and Santiago Buitrago from the Bahrain Victorious team currently holds the fastest time. On the other hand, the descent towards the finish is slightly less steep, with a drop of only 49 meters over 460 meters, averaging a gradient of 10.5%. Matej Mohorič is the standout on this final stretch, as he secured a victory in Milan – San Remo with a bold attack on a similar type of terrain, marked by daring descents. All of this action is expected after catching the breakaway in Rijeka, likely composed of riders who have been accumulating points in climbs and intermediate sprints over the past two days.
In addition to Mohorič, I would consider Magnus Sheffield as a contender for victory here. Plus, if they have recovered well, definitely keep an eye on Quin Simmons, Ethan Hayter, Eddie Dunbar and Oscar Onley.
- Krk – Labin, Friday 29.9., start at 11:45
191km, 3650 meters of climbing.
From Opatija, the peloton moves to island Krk, where we start a stage that brings us the first real HC (hors catégorie) climb to Poklon on Učka Mountain. It’s categorized as a 692-meter ascent over 12 kilometers of road, with an average gradient of 5.8% and a maximum incline of 14%. However, before reaching this climb, there are two intermediate sprints in Malinska and Viškovo. These sprints are followed by the aforementioned ascent. Not only this one but also the other climbs in store make this the queen stage of the race, covering 191 kilometers and featuring 3650 meters of elevation gain. After this stage, we will undoubtedly have the top 5 in the overall standings, and most likely, the winner of the entire race. However, before victory, riders will have to navigate a very steep descent from Učka down to Boljunsko Polje on the western side of the mountain. After just a few kilometers, they will face another short and steep climb with a maximum gradient of 18% to the Afrići village. From there, they continue towards Pazin, where there will be another sprint at the intermediate sprint line, and immediately after, they climb again towards Lindar, marked as a Category 3 climb. The next twenty kilometers take them south, with a somewhat uneven descent towards the valley of the Raša River. Afterward, they face the penultimate climb of the day, heading towards Labin. By this point, the riders’ legs will be quite fatigued, but whoever performs well here will be very close to victory. Today, there will be a circuit, which means that before the actual finish of the stage, they will pass through the finish line once. However, that final circuit, especially the last kilometer, will be grueling. It involves nearly a hundred meters of ascent on cobblestones, and I believe it will be thrilling to watch, but the riders will certainly suffer.
Considering the number of climbs, only the best climbers will reach Labin, so I assume it will be a relatively small group, perhaps up to 15 riders. I think among them, Matej Mohorič could shine again, and a victory on this stage could solidify his second consecutive win on the CroRace. However, Magnus Sheffield from Ineos could make it challenging for him, as well as Simmons, Hayter, Dunbar and Onleya if they are in good form. They could also be joined by Cepeda from Caja Rural – Seguros RGA, and Jonas Gregaard from UNO – X.
- Crikvenica – Ozalj, Saturday 30.9., start at 10:05
189km, 2550 meters of climbing.
The second longest stage of the race with the most climbs after Stage 4. Despite this fact, it is expected that sprinters will once again face off in Ozalj.
However, before that, they must climb from the Crikvenica region up to Breza, 1084 meters above sea level, on a climb that leads them toward Ogulin. And this practically happens right after the stage begins! The climb lasts for 20 kilometers, and apart from one flat segment three kilometers after the start, the remaining 19 kilometers are a continuous ascent! Nevertheless, the climb is very steady, with the steepest gradient being 8 percent, so the peloton shouldn’t have too many issues, and they will likely pass it without much stress. For riders still feeling the effects of Stage 4, this will be a painful start to the stage. However, as almost half of the total ascent on the stage is concentrated in the first thirty kilometers, there will be much more descending ahead since the finish line is in Ozalj at just 136 meters above sea level. However, the road there has quite a few humps, so they will still have to pedal, especially the sprinter teams, to catch the breakaway that will likely form on the climb. Since there are 162 kilometers from the end of the ascent to the finish, I doubt that anyone who can impact the general classification will be in the breakaway. Instead, it will probably be someone who might try to take or hold onto the climber’s jersey earned in the previous stages. Although it’s quite possible that the winner of Stage 4, in addition to the red jersey, also has a green jersey with a decent lead in points.
In that case, we will have a breakaway for television coverage that the sprinter teams will likely catch around Duga Resa. Or perhaps even earlier if one of the sprinters wants to pick up a few points for the blue jersey because the intermediate sprint with points is in Josipdol, 104 km before the end of the stage. If not there, the next intermediate sprint is in Generalski Stol, and the third and final one on this stage is in the aforementioned Duga Resa. From there to Ozalj, the riders will have two steep descents, two railroad crossings, one narrow bridge, and one unlit tunnel. When they pass through Ozalj for the first time at 18 km before the finish, they will become familiar with their finish line, but it seems they won’t be able to relax until the end of the stage because the circuit takes them on narrow roads through settlements along the Kupa River, with several sharp turns. I hope the peloton navigates all of this successfully because there are many pinch points where riders could crash!
I must note here that I gather my information about the route from the race guide on the official organizer’s website and the Google Maps application. Comparing the plotted route from the guide (which unfortunately is of low resolution) with what is recorded on Google Maps, the end of this stage doesn’t inspire confidence in me because, according to the September 2022 recordings, a part of the road where the finish line is located is an industrial zone and gravel! I believe that if I read the route correctly, that gravel section has been paved, but the finish point won’t be particularly spectacular. Okay, Ozalj is a small town, and there probably isn’t enough space in the center to organize a finish line, so the organizers moved it to where everyone will have enough room. Nevertheless, this will be a quite scenic stage to watch because we start from the sea and ascend to the doorstep of Gorski Kotar, then continue through beautiful landscapes alongside beautiful rivers of this part of Croatia.
If everything goes well, I believe we will have another group sprint in which the candidates will once again be Elia Viviani, Alexander Kristoff, Orluis Aular, Tobias Lund Andresen and Iúri Leitão . Here, due to their immense experience, I would give an advantage to Kristoff and maybe Viviani because positioning in the peloton and the two sharp turns, the first one at 500 meters and the next one at around 250 meters before the finish, will decide the winner.
- Samobor – Zagreb, Sunday 1.10., start at 11:25.
157,5km, 625 meters of climbing.
The final stage traditionally starts in Samobor and goes through Velika Gorica, Dugo Selo, Vrbovec, and Sveti Ivan Zelina to the center of Zagreb, where it will likely finish with a spectacular sprint in front of the fountains at the National and University Library. Along the way, the riders will have two intermediate sprints, right after the start in Sveta Nedelja and at the 70th kilometer in Dugo Selo. In Sveti Ivan Zelina, there will be the only KOM of the day, a Category 3 ascent, 50 kilometers before the finish. The race continues on the highway towards the center of Zagreb, where the riders will pass through the finish line three times, with the second pass offering bonus seconds for the 3rd and final intermediate sprint of the day and the race.
The final laps will be ridden from Ulica Grada Vukovara in the north to Avenija Dubrovnik in the south, crossing the Most slobode (Freedom Bridge), and will undoubtedly provide excellent conditions for a true sprint finish of the stage.
The breakaway, likely from continental teams, will pick up points until Zelina, and when we reach the approaches to Zagreb, the peloton will catch up with them. In the final thirty kilometers, there will be a battle for positions before entering the circuit for the sprint. We still have the usual suspects for victory – Elia Viviani, Alexander Kristoff, Orluis Aular, Tobias Lund Andresen and Iúri Leitão. However, it’s not impossible that someone from the peloton dares to break away a bit earlier and try to enter the finish line alone. Although, considering the quality of the race, I doubt there are riders who can pull off such a move on such flat and wide roads. On this stage, if he’s in good form, I would give the advantage for victory to Viviani, simply because of the strength of his team. They will likely prevent any breakaway attempts in the finale and maintain a good pace to launch him into the sprint after the final left turn before the finish straight. Although Andresen and Leitão have been nipping at the heels of the strongest sprinters in the world recently, so it wouldn’t be surprising if one of them turns out to be the fastest.
Wishes for future editions of the Race
This promises to be an exciting race with stunning landscapes of Croatia. I would love to see in future editions a challenging mountain stage in Gorski Kotar region, as it’s a beautiful region both for its scenery and for cycling. Perhaps a criterium-style stage on one of our larger southern islands, although logistically complex, would be great for both spectators and cycling. An stage that includes Dubrovnik, the Pelješac Bridge, and a return climb to Biokovo would also be a picturesque route to showcase to the world. And not forgetting the north of Croatia, the Slavonian mountains offer opportunities for a decent mix of climbing and flat stages, with a potential hilltop finish at Omanovac, which would truly test the best climbers. Lastly, I’ve saved the roads I know best, the numerous short and steep hills of Međimurje and Hrvatsko Zagorje, which could provide explosive and intriguing racing in a Belgian spring classics style stage. I understand that it’s easy to write about these ideas, but not so simple to organize, but hey, I’m allowed to dream a bit, right? 😊
Possible Winners
Finally, I’m putting my neck on the line with predictions for the race winners:
- Matej Mohorič or Magnus Sheffield for the overall victory. My heart leans towards Matej, but Sheffield‘s team strength gives him a better chance.
- Tobias Lund Andresen / Viviani for the blue jersey (points classification).
- The green jersey (mountain classification) will most likely be worn by the winner of Stage 4, either Mohorič or Sheffield.
- The best young rider (under 23 years old), the white jersey, should be worn by the American Magnus Sheffield.
For all English speakers, I’ve used AI (chatGPT) to get phonetic pronunciation of Croatian toponymes used in this text and that will be mentioned on the course. I hope it helps somewhat.
- Pag: Pahg
- Krk: Kirk
- Sveti Ivan Zelina: Sveh-tee Ee-vahn Zeh-lee-nah
- Vrbovec: Vur-boh-vets
- Primošten: Preem-oh-shten
- Sinj: Seen
- Dalmacija: Duhl-mah-tee-yah
- Šibenik: Shee-beh-neek
- Split: Split
- Klis: Klees
- Sinj: Seen
- Biograd na Moru: Bee-oh-grad nah Moh-roo
- Novalja: Noh-vahl-yah
- Zadar: Zah-dar
- Ravne Kotare: Rahv-neh Ko-tah-reh
- Posedarje: Poh-seh-dar-yeh
- Gradac: Gra-dats
- Otočac: Oh-toh-chats
- Opatija: Oh-pah-tee-yah
- Like: Lye-k
- Vratnik: Vraht-neek
- Senj: Sen
- Novi Vinodolski: Noh-vee Vee-noh-dol-skee
- Bribir: Bree-beer
- Rijeka: Ree-yeh-kah
- Krk: Kirk
- Labin: Lah-been
- Crikvenica: Crik-veh-nee-tsah
- Poklon: Pok-lon
- Učka: Ooch-kah
- Malinska: Mah-leen-skah
- Viškovo: Vee-shkoh-voh
- Boljunsko Polje: Bohl-yoon-skoh Pol-yeh
- Afrići: Ah-freechee
- Pazin: Pah-zeen
- Lindar: Leen-dar
- Raša: Rah-shah
- Ozalj: Oh-zahl
- Breza: Breh-zah
- Ogulin: Oh-goo-leen
- Duga Resa: Doo-gah Reh-sah
- Josipdol: Yoh-seep-dol
- Generalski Stol: Geh-neh-rahl-skee Stohl
- Kupa: Koo-pah
- Gorski Kotar: Gohr-skee Koh-tahr
- Samobor: Sah-moh-bohr
- Zagreb: Zah-greb
- Velika Gorica: Veh-lee-kah Goh-ree-tsah
- Dugo Selo: Doo-goh Seh-loh
- Vrbovec: Vur-boh-vets
- Sveta Nedelja: Sveh-tah Neh-deh-lyah
- Ulica Grada Vukovara: Oo-lee-tsah Grah-dah Voo-koh-vah-rah
- Avenija Dubrovnik: Ah-veh-nee-yah Doo-brohv-neek
- Mosta slobode: Mohs-tah Sloh-boh-deh
- Pelješac most: Peh-lye-shahts Mohst
- Biokovo: Bee-oh-koh-voh
- Slavonian: Slah-voh-nee-ahn
- Omanovac: Oh-mah-noh-vats
- Međimurje: Meh-jee-moor-yeh
- Hrvatsko Zagorje: Hr-vah-ts-koh Zah-goh-ryeh
For those of you who, like me, follow competitive cycling, feel free to comment. Whom do you think I’ve underestimated, overestimated, or forgotten?
Of course, if you think the text is good and useful, I would appreciate it if you shared it on social media. It might also motivate me to write short summaries of the stages when the race begins! 🤔😊
Odgovori